Components of population growth: birth, death, migration
Population Growth in India: Birth Rate and Fertility Rate Dynamics
Population growth in India is primarily influenced by two key demographic measures: the birth rate and the fertility rate. The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) indicates the number of live births per 1,000 individuals in a year and serves as a broad indicator of a country’s fertility level. As of 2022, India’s CBR stands at 17.163 per 1,000 people, reflecting a slight decline from previous years and signaling a gradual slowdown in birth rates. More precisely, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) measures the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime based on current age-specific fertility rates. Over the past few decades, India has witnessed a remarkable reduction in TFR—from 3.4 children per woman in the early 1990s to approximately 2.0 children per woman by 2019-21, which is at or slightly below the replacement level of 2.1. This decline is a significant achievement attributed largely to the success of national family planning initiatives such as the Health and Family Planning Programme, launched in 1952, which aimed to stabilize population growth in alignment with the country’s economic needs.
Despite the overall positive trend, regional disparities in fertility rates remain a challenge. States like Bihar, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Manipur continue to report fertility rates above the replacement threshold, reflecting persistent traditional attitudes, lower female education levels, and limited access to reproductive health services. The success of family planning is further underscored by increased contraceptive use, as evidenced by rising couple protection rates and contraceptive prevalence rates over recent decades. Such increases have played a pivotal role in reducing fertility, empowering couples to make informed decisions about family size.
Several socio-economic and cultural factors significantly influence birth and fertility rates in India. The age at which women marry remains crucial; early marriage extends the reproductive window, often resulting in higher fertility. Although the average age at marriage has risen slightly, a substantial portion of women still marry before 18, especially in rural areas. Education is another vital factor: women with higher literacy and education levels tend to have fewer children, as seen in the stark contrast between states like Bihar and Kerala. Women’s status within families also impacts fertility, with those experiencing domestic violence or lower autonomy generally having larger families. Employment outside the home tends to reduce fertility, as working women have greater autonomy and access to family planning resources. Economic conditions further shape fertility patterns—poorer families often view children as economic contributors, leading to larger family sizes, whereas wealthier families have fewer children due to better access to healthcare and higher costs of child-rearing.
Religious and socio-cultural norms continue to influence fertility behaviors. Conservative religious beliefs, particularly among Muslim communities, often discourage contraceptive use, contributing to higher fertility. Social pressures to bear children, especially sons, remain strong in traditional and rural settings. Moreover, fertility rates tend to be higher in rural areas, where limited access to family planning and entrenched cultural norms favor larger families. However, attitudinal changes over time, influenced by industrialization, urbanization, and rising living standards, have encouraged smaller family norms. Urbanization, in particular, fosters individualism and reduces the traditional extended family structure, thereby contributing to fertility decline. Rising economic aspirations, increasing costs of raising children, and greater social mobility also act as deterrents to large families.
In conclusion, India’s population growth has slowed substantially due to a combination of declining birth and fertility rates driven by education, family planning programs, socio-economic development, and shifting cultural attitudes. Nonetheless, significant regional and socio-cultural disparities persist, requiring continued focus on education, women’s empowerment, health infrastructure, and socio-economic reforms to sustain this progress and work towards demographic stabilization. These factors together highlight the complex interplay of biological, social, economic, and cultural forces shaping population growth in India today.
Death Rate or Mortality
Mortality refers to the occurrence of death within a population and serves as a crucial indicator of the health status and demographic characteristics of a region. It is commonly measured using several rates that provide insight into the population’s well-being and the effectiveness of healthcare systems. The Crude Death Rate (CDR) is the total number of registered deaths in a year per 1,000 people in the mid-year population. In India, the CDR stood at 7.34 deaths per 1,000 people in 2022, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions.
Among specific mortality measures, the Child Mortality Rate (CMR) tracks deaths between ages one to four per 1,000 children, while the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) focuses on deaths of infants under one year per 1,000 live births. India's IMR has seen a positive decline, from 28.8 in previous years to 27.7 in 2022, marking progress in infant survival. Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR), indicating deaths within the first 28 days of life, has also improved, falling from around 30 to 25 per 1,000 births between 2015-16 and 2019-21. However, mortality rates vary considerably across regions: rural areas report higher IMRs (31) compared to urban centers (19), and states like Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh struggle with infant mortality rates well above the national average, unlike Kerala and Goa, which enjoy low IMRs.
Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR), measuring maternal deaths per 100,000 live births, is another key indicator. India has made significant strides, reducing its MMR to 103 during 2017-19, down from 113 previously. Yet, disparities remain, with high MMRs concentrated in states such as Rajasthan, Bihar, and Assam, while states like Kerala and Maharashtra have already met the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births.
The causes of high infant mortality in India are multifaceted. Social and economic factors, including child marriage, poor maternal health, and malnutrition, play major roles. Poverty exacerbates these issues, with larger families often born out of insecurity about child survival. Lack of awareness and education further hampers preventive care, especially in rural and less developed regions. Healthcare accessibility and quality remain significant challenges, as primary health centers frequently lack adequate medical staff and resources, leading to preventable deaths from conditions like pneumonia and diarrhea. Additionally, delayed initiation of breastfeeding increases vulnerability among newborns.
Maternal mortality is similarly affected by social, cultural, and healthcare factors. Early pregnancies from child marriage heighten risks due to biological immaturity. Poverty limits access to nutritious food and medical care, while social taboos prevent timely healthcare-seeking. Many women still deliver at home without trained assistance, leading to complications such as hemorrhage, infections, and unsafe abortions. Medical causes like high blood pressure and anemia further compound risks.
Despite these challenges, India’s decline in maternal mortality owes much to increased awareness, better access to emergency services, and targeted government programs like Janani Suraksha Yojana, which encourage institutional deliveries. Continued improvements in healthcare infrastructure and education are essential for sustaining this positive trend and achieving national and global health targets.
Migration
Migration refers to the geographical movement of people involving a change from their usual place of residence to another location, either within a country (internal migration) or across international borders (international migration). It is a vital demographic phenomenon that significantly influences population dynamics and has far-reaching socio-economic and cultural implications. According to the National Sample Survey Organization (NSO), a migrant is defined as an individual who resides at a present place of enumeration different from their usual place of residence, which is typically a place where the person has lived or intends to live for at least six months. Demographers like Everett Lee emphasize that migration involves a permanent or semi-permanent change of residence, while sociologists such as Eisenstadt highlight the social transition involved when individuals move from one society to another. Migration can be permanent or relatively long-term, as noted by Mangalam and regional studies like Mehta’s work on Rajasthan, which underline both geographical and social aspects of the movement.
Migration manifests in various forms, primarily categorized as internal and international migration. Internal migration refers to movement within national boundaries, such as rural-to-urban shifts, inter-state, or intra-state migration. This form of migration is prevalent in developing countries, driven by factors such as the search for better employment, education, or escaping environmental and social distress. International migration involves crossing national borders, motivated by opportunities like economic advancement, political asylum, family reunification, or education, and includes both voluntary and forced displacement scenarios.
In India, migration trends based on the 2011 Census reveal significant patterns. The country had approximately 456 million migrants in 2011, constituting 38% of the population, up from 315 million in 2001. Most migration (99%) was internal, dominated by rural-to-rural movements (54%), followed by rural-to-urban and urban-to-urban flows. Intra-state migration formed the majority of internal movements (88%), often driven by marriage and family reasons, particularly among women, whereas work-related migration was more common among men. Inter-state migration accounted for only 4% of the population, with states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar being major sources of migrants, while Maharashtra and Delhi attracted many. Challenges such as the non-portability of benefits and domicile requirements limit inter-state migration, affecting the optimal distribution of human resources. Furthermore, female migration is often underreported in work-related migration statistics due to social norms. Temporary and labor migration, especially for work, are widespread but frequently underestimated in official data.
The sociological significance of migration is profound. As one of the three core components of population change—alongside fertility and mortality—it shapes the size, structure, and composition of populations. Unlike fertility and mortality, migration is a socially driven process, influenced by economic, political, and cultural factors. It reflects the needs and aspirations of individuals and groups, ranging from economic betterment to social integration or escape from adverse conditions. Migration affects population growth directly and influences demographic variables such as age distribution, gender ratios, and ethnic diversity. It is also a key indicator and driver of social change, reflecting broader processes like urbanization, globalization, and economic development. Migration reshapes labor markets, redistributes population across regions, and alters socio-economic relations, contributing to the transformation of societies and economies. In essence, migration is both a consequence and a catalyst of social and demographic evolution, with its impacts felt locally, nationally, and globally.
Forms of Migration
Migration occurs in several distinct forms, broadly categorized based on the nature, direction, and reasons for movement. One primary distinction is between internal and external (international) migration. Internal migration takes place within a country’s borders, such as moving from one city or state to another, while external or international migration involves crossing national boundaries, for example, relocating from India to the United States. Closely related to this are the terms immigration and emigration: immigration refers to moving into a new country, like Indians settling in Canada, whereas emigration denotes leaving one’s home country, such as Indians departing for Canada. Within internal migration, the terms inmigration and outmigration describe movement into and out of specific areas, respectively—for instance, someone moving to Punjab from Bihar is an inmigrant to Punjab and an outmigrant from Bihar.
Another form is cyclic migration, characterized by repetitive, often seasonal movement between fixed points within the same year. This pattern is typical of pastoral nomads such as the Gujjar Bakarwals of Jammu & Kashmir or the Gaddis of Himachal Pradesh, who migrate seasonally between lowland and highland pastures. Forced or impelled migration involves people compelled to leave their homes due to adverse conditions like war, famine, epidemics, or political oppression. The large-scale displacement of Afghan refugees during decades of conflict exemplifies this form.
Within internal migration, demographers classify streams based on origin and destination. Rural-rural migration involves movement between rural areas, often tied to agricultural cycles or cultural practices like marriage customs; for example, young women moving to their husband’s village after marriage. Rural-urban migration is especially prominent in developing countries and is driven by push factors such as poverty and lack of facilities in rural areas, and pull factors like better employment, infrastructure, and healthcare in cities. Census 2011 confirms this trend, with significant movement toward urban centers such as Delhi and Mumbai. Urban-urban migration typically involves skilled workers moving between cities for better job opportunities or living conditions, often as a stepwise progression from smaller to larger towns. Conversely, urban-rural migration is less common but notable during times of distress, such as the COVID-19 pandemic when many migrant workers returned to their villages due to job losses and health concerns.
India’s international migration has created a vast and growing global diaspora. As of 2020, approximately 18 million Indians live abroad, with significant growth between 2005 and 2010 aligned with India’s economic boom. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) hosts the largest Indian expatriate population, around 3.4 million, drawn by a flourishing economy in sectors like construction and oil. This corridor between India and the UAE ranks third worldwide in migration volume. The United States is the second most popular destination, attracting about 2.7 million Indians, especially skilled workers in STEM fields, driven by demand for educated labor. Saudi Arabia is also a major host country, with approximately 2.5 million Indians, many employed in construction, healthcare, and domestic work.
Migration has substantial economic implications for India. Remittances sent by overseas Indians are a critical source of foreign exchange, totaling $83.15 billion in 2020—the highest globally—surpassing even China. Major contributors include the United States, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, supporting household incomes, investment, and consumption in India. Additionally, Non-Resident Indian (NRI) deposits in Indian banks have grown steadily, bolstering the country’s financial reserves. Overall, migration shapes India’s demographic landscape and fuels its economy, highlighting the complex interplay of social mobility, labor markets, and transnational linkages.
Reasons for Migration: An Analysis of Economic, Social, Demographic, and Political Factors
Migration is a complex social phenomenon driven by a range of factors that influence individuals or groups to move from one place to another. These factors can be broadly classified into economic, push, pull, push-back, socio-cultural, demographic, and political reasons. They either compel people to leave their home regions or attract them toward new destinations. Understanding these diverse reasons offers insight into the patterns and consequences of migration.
One of the most significant reasons for migration is economic factors. In many developing countries, low agricultural income and irregular employment push rural workers to seek better opportunities elsewhere. Agricultural unemployment and underemployment further intensify this pressure, as many rural areas cannot provide stable jobs. Additionally, overpopulation and land scarcity reduce the availability of cultivable land, leading to increased unemployment. The lack of alternative income sources in rural areas makes urban migration more appealing. Furthermore, social structures like the joint family system combined with inheritance laws often cause property fragmentation, prompting younger generations to move to cities for economic security.
Closely linked to economic reasons are push factors, which refer to adverse conditions that force people to leave their current location. These include poverty, low productivity, unemployment, depletion of natural resources, and natural disasters. Lower income in the agricultural sector compared to other sectors acts as a strong push, especially in regions heavily dependent on farming. Population pressure in rural areas, due to rapid growth, results in fewer resources per person and higher unemployment, further encouraging migration. The lack of diverse income sources in these areas makes migration almost necessary for survival.
In contrast, pull factors are the positive attractions that draw migrants to new locations. Cities or developed countries often offer better employment opportunities, higher wages, and improved working conditions, especially in sectors like technology, services, and manufacturing. Along with these economic incentives, better amenities such as healthcare, education, and an overall higher standard of living entice migrants. Cultural and entertainment opportunities, which are typically scarce in rural areas, also serve as attractive features of urban life.
However, migration is not always a straightforward process driven solely by economic gains or opportunities. Push-back factors sometimes emerge when migration leads to challenges in destination areas. For instance, high urban unemployment can discourage further influx, as cities become saturated with job seekers. Additionally, social unrest or political instability in these areas can deter migrants, causing migration flows to slow down or even reverse.
Socio-cultural factors play a significant role in shaping migration patterns as well. Traditional practices such as marriage-related migration are common, particularly in societies like India where women traditionally move to their spouse’s home after marriage. Education is another crucial motivator, with young people moving to urban centers or abroad in pursuit of better learning opportunities. Religious freedom can also drive migration, especially for individuals facing persecution. Moreover, social networks facilitate chain migration, where family or community members who have already settled in a new place create support systems that encourage others to follow.
Demographic factors influence who migrates and where they go. Younger people are more inclined to migrate, attracted by job prospects, education, and vibrant lifestyles. Regional disparities in economic development create imbalanced migration flows, with people moving from underdeveloped rural regions to economically prosperous urban centers. Rapid population growth in certain areas leads to overcrowding and increased competition for resources, prompting migration to less crowded locations.
Finally, political factors have a profound impact on migration. Government policies such as job reservation favoring local residents can restrict migration from other regions. Political unrest, violence, and terrorism are major causes of forced migration, as seen in conflict-affected regions like Kashmir and Punjab. Moreover, political attitudes and hostility toward migrants can influence migration flows, sometimes resulting in exclusion or discrimination against newcomers.
In conclusion, migration is a multifaceted phenomenon influenced by a wide array of economic, social, demographic, and political factors. While economic aspirations often drive voluntary migration, adverse conditions and socio-political realities can both push people away from their homes and shape the attractiveness of destinations. Understanding these factors is essential for developing policies that address the challenges and opportunities arising from migration.
Consequences of Migration
Migration has profound consequences for both the regions migrants leave and the places they move to, influencing economic, demographic, social, psychological, and political dimensions. These impacts can be both beneficial and challenging, depending on the scale and nature of migration and the context in which it takes place.
Economic Consequences of migration are multifaceted. On the positive side, migration from labor-surplus areas can increase average labor productivity by encouraging mechanization and more efficient labor use. Migrants often send remittances back home, which help improve the living conditions of families, boost consumption, and fund investments in housing, education, and local businesses. However, migration can also lead to a “brain drain,” where skilled individuals leave underdeveloped regions, widening development disparities. Rural labor shortages may drive up wages, benefiting those who remain, but may also strain traditional labor markets. Additionally, many migrants work in the informal economy where they face poor working conditions and limited access to formal financial services, perpetuating their economic vulnerability.
In terms of demographic consequences, migration often skews the sex ratio in sending regions, especially where young males migrate for work, leaving behind a higher proportion of females, children, and elderly. This shifts the dependency ratio, placing greater economic burdens on those who remain. Furthermore, long-term separation of families due to migration can result in a reduction in birth rates in the migrants’ home regions.
The social and psychological consequences of migration are significant. Migrants and return migrants often introduce new ideas, technologies, and attitudes that can drive social modernization and cultural change. Migration may disrupt traditional family structures, with women assuming greater responsibility for agriculture and household decisions, leading to the feminization of agriculture. However, separation from migrant family members can cause psychological distress and social isolation for those left behind. Migrants in urban areas frequently face alienation, discrimination, and overcrowded living conditions in slums or informal settlements. This urban congestion places pressure on infrastructure and the environment, sometimes causing pollution and resource depletion. The quality of life for many migrants may not improve substantially despite relocation, due to inadequate housing and exclusion from social services.
Politically, migration can lead to exclusion and marginalization. Migrants, particularly seasonal and informal workers, often lack voting rights and political representation because they are not registered residents in their new locations. This exclusion extends to public services; migrants frequently face barriers in accessing healthcare, education, ration shops, and social welfare programs, limiting their ability to integrate fully into urban life and exacerbating inequalities.
In summary, migration brings complex consequences that shape economic development, demographic patterns, social structures, and political dynamics in both sending and receiving regions. While it offers opportunities for better livelihoods and social change, it also poses challenges such as social exclusion, economic disparities, and pressures on urban infrastructure that require thoughtful policy responses.
Migration and Reverse Migration — Migration in India Report (2020-21)
The Migration in India 2020-21 report, released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in June 2022, provides a comprehensive overview of migration patterns in India, especially highlighting the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on migration trends. The report analyzes different types of migration, gender and education-based migration trends, the phenomenon of reverse migration, and the socio-economic consequences of these movements.
Key Findings of the Report
The overall migration rate in India stands at 28.9%, reflecting the percentage of the population who have migrated. Migration occurs in diverse forms such as rural-to-rural, rural-to-urban, urban-to-rural, and urban-to-urban movement. A noteworthy trend is the predominance of female migration for marriage, accounting for 81.1% of female migrants compared to 18.8% among males. Migration rates inversely correlate with education levels — the highest among illiterate individuals (33%) and progressively decreasing with higher educational attainment, with only 11% of graduates and above migrating.
Reverse Migration After COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically influenced migration flows, resulting in 3.14% of the population migrating post-March 2020. Among these, reverse migration—people returning to their previous residences or rural origins—accounted for 11.1%. This was a significant increase compared to pre-pandemic trends, with 53% of migrants moving back. Primary causes for this reverse migration included job loss or business closures (19.35%), health concerns (14%), and family-related reasons such as the migration of a parent or earning member.
Implications of Reverse Migration
Reverse migration had distinct impacts on rural and urban areas. In rural regions, the Worker Population Ratio rose from 35% in 2017-18 to 41.3% in 2020-21, reflecting increased employment likely due to returning migrants. Employment in agriculture also rose from 42.4% to 46.4% during the same period, showing a return to agricultural livelihoods. Conversely, urban centers faced labor shortages, particularly in the secondary sector, affecting both skilled and unskilled workforces. This shortage disrupted industrial productivity and could slow technological advancements in these areas.
Future Trends and Challenges
Data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) suggests that 60% of returned migrants are reluctant to migrate again soon, potentially causing a slowdown in future migration trends. While rural agricultural sectors may benefit from the influx of returning workers, urban industries, especially those relying on unskilled labor, could face persistent labor shortages. This shift could reshape labor market dynamics by increasing rural dependence on agriculture and reducing reliance on urban industrial employment.
In summary, the Migration in India 2020-21 report underscores the complex nature of migration, highlighting how reverse migration during the pandemic reshaped economic and demographic landscapes. Policymakers must consider these shifts to balance rural development and urban economic growth, addressing labor shortages and improving livelihood opportunities across regions.